Black Swan Theory - Possible black swan event in near future

All swans are white, if there is a black swan; it means there is an irregularity. It is my conclusion after read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s version of Black Swan Theory. Actually, his theory is not about swan at all. Now, let’s see the possible event of black swan.

It was in December 23rd, 1913, Congress of United States passed Federal Reserve Act. This act gives power to Federal Reserve to print gold backed money, something previously done by US Treasury. Even if this Federal Reserve is not federal and also does not have reserve – its name surely has been fooling American and the rest of the world.

For this work, Federal Reserve is paid by what so called seigniorage, a difference between nominal value and print cost. Ironically, Federal Reserve does not receive payment using money it printed – of course because paper money is worthless. Federal Reserve is paid using Gold Certificate, that only exchangeable to gold, real gold!

To avoid any disturbances, the payment is done by 1% of US gold reserve per year. Even if it is relatively small, US government is only able to pay in the period of 100 years. The end of 100 years period dated back from December 1913 is December 2012. So what will happen after that time? Who knows? But I am sure it will not be a pleasant thing. According to Mayan prophecy, 2012 is the end of life on earth. The real truth, we still know nothing.

Here is a quotation from Morgan Stanley in Financial Times:

“…given the size of the current and prospective economic and financial problems, and given the size of the monetary and fiscal stimulus that central banks and governments are throwing at these problems, investors would be well advised not to ignore this tail risk, especially as markets are priced for the opposite outcome of lasting deflation in the next several years. Put differently, we believe that buying some insurance against the black swan event of high inflation or even hyperinflation makes sense and is relatively cheap currently”

I am a lay people, but after witnessing governments over the world releasing what so called stimulus plan, I began to doubt that we will recover soon. It is very open that we will face black swan events in near future. How could they expect better thing by adding more money to market? We see, more money, less valuable it is.

Maison Ikkoku

I just finish watching complete series of Maison Ikkoku anime. It has around 96 episodes, and every episode has 25 minutes playtime. It took around two weeks to finish them all. Here is a video in Youtube.

Comparing to other works of Rumiko Takahashi, Maison Ikkoku is a unique one. There aren’t any magic, demons, monsters, or adventures; the things that usually become the main focus in her work. The character, Godai Yusaku, is a very common student even somewhat a loser in many appearances. As student he isn’t very bright and seems to have much bad luck. The story revolves around him, especially to Otonashi Kyoko who happens to be his love interest and apartment’s manager.

The story begins with Godai is struggling to attend university. He failed last year entrance exam and now is going to preparation school. During this period he stays in an apartment called Maison Ikkoku. But his study here is constantly disturbed by other tenants, Mrs. Ichinose, Yotsuya, and Roppongi Akemi. Before he moves out, Kyoko comes to be the new apartment’s manager. Fascinated by her charm, Godai keep her stay in Maison Ikkoku throughout the story. Kyoko is a widow and Maison Ikkoku is owned by her father in law, it is hinted that her father in law give her the job to soothe her feeling after her husband’s death.

Kyoko takes her job dutifully, and strangely she has a tendency to dote over careless Godai. From here their feeling is built up, but the story is not as smooth as you expect. There Sun Mitaka shows up and tries to get Kyoko’s attention too. Kyoko is torn between two of them complicating the story, not to mention the wishy washy Godai. The story is ranging from Godai’s time in preparation school, his college years, his job hunting aftermath, and finally his formal bond with Kyoko marks the end of story.

In this works, Rumiko Takahashi sets definite happy ending, not an open ending like in her other works. As her fan, I like her works very much, the manga and its adaptation in anime. For complete info, go to wikipedia or other sites. If you are interested, there are many torrents to share the complete series of this anime, of course you must have fast internet connection.

Mozilla Firefox 3

I can say that Mozilla Firefox 3 is my favorite browser. Now its popularity is second after Internet Explorer from Microsoft. Internet Explorer gains highest popularity because it is packed with Microsoft Windows, if it isn’t, perhaps the story will be different. Firefox is free, may be Internet Explorer is free too but we must buy Microsoft Windows to have it. Today, Firefox is the most popular free web browsers, and almost everybody today ever use Firefox in browsing.

Today, I still use Firefox 3 along with Opera and Google Chrome, and Firefox still becomes my favorite browser. But I notice that in several points, Firefox is inferior compared to Opera and Google Chrome:

• First, Firefox 3 needs more time to start compared to Opera and Google Chrome. Today I use Firefox 3, and this problem is still occurring. It is so obvious that I don’t even need stopwatch to compare it.
• Second, sometimes when Firefox 3 is loaded to open multiple tabs, it will automatically shut down itself. This problem also occurs when Firefox 3 is opening a site containing particular ads script. I met this problem when I use dial up connection to connect to internet, there is no problem in other connection.

Generally, I like Firefox, in several points it is superior compared to other browsers, including Internet Explorer. Considering that almost web browser now is free, it is no use to compare them based on whether free or not. I have been using Firefox since 2005, I thought it was faster than other browsers I knew (browsers I knew in that year are IE and Opera). Today it is almost impossible for lay people to compare browser based on speed, all of them almost equal.

There is one reason I like Firefox very much: There are many available plug-ins and Add-ons in internet, just j search them. Almost all of plug-ins and Add-ons are designed to suit Firefox. As the leading free web browsers, it is not strange that there are many people’s contributions to improve it. You can download it from its official site or in Download.com

Ah! My Goddess Season 2

Season 2 of Ah! My Goddess anime is titled “Sorezore no Tsubasa” in Japanese, it is translated to Everyone Has Wings according to some sources, or Flights of Fancy in other. Well, I don’t understand Japanese so I can’t comment which one of them is the correct translation. It has 22 episodes, still consistent in its genre as peaceful and humorous stories, even if there are truly existing conflicts between characters. The story, of course, is still around Belldandy and Keichi relationship, accompanied by Belldandy sisters (Urd and Skuld) and Keichi’s friends. Here is opening of season 2 in Youtube.

There are three introductions of new important characters in Season 2, they are Peorth, Sentaro, and Hild. These three characters will continue to appear in later episodes. Peorth is a goddess who considers herself as Belldandy’s rival, accidentally called by Keichi via phone. Her appearance mostly makes troubles to Keichi and Belldandy, but her rivalry with Belldandy seems to fade over time. Sentaro is a boy Skuld meet in temple’s neighborhood she, Keichi, and her sisters live now. Soon both of them begin closer, even developing crush each other. This happens when Urd’s body is shrunk because of error in Yggdrasil.

The last is Hild, she actually is Urd’s mother, who has an authority over Hell. Urd has mixed blood of God and Demon. She is summoned to Earth by Urd, to cure her split personalities as a result of her conflict with Marller. Of course, Hild won’t help for free, Urd must pay back for her help. Hild continues to appear later because she leaves a part of her to remain in Earth when she goes back to Hell.

Ah! My Goddess is full with references to Norse mythology, I don’t really understand about it. I also don’t really understand about its rating. In addition, there are some mild sexual contents in words and scene. I can notice that Peorth is always shown wearing skimpy clothes, so is Urd in several occasions. That’s no problem for me; I am in early twenties now. This was made for TV, so many fans recorded it. There are numerous peer to peer file sharing using torrent in internet, you may try it if you have high speed internet connection.

Ah! My Goddess Season 1

Ah! My Goddess anime is based on manga authored by Kosuke Fujishima. The canon version, manga, is still being serialized now, published by Kodansha. Its initial run was in 1988, so it has passed over two decades now. Season 1 contains 26 episodes; here, important characters are introduced one by one in this season.

Story of Ah! My Goddess is about Keichi Morisato, a college student, and his love life revolving around him. The story begins when a goddess, Belldandy, comes to Keichi’s boarding house to grant him a wish. Keichi, who feels a bit unsure unintentionally, wishes that a goddess like Belldanny would stay with him forever. Unexpectedly, his wish is granted by heaven, so Keichi and Belldandy must stay together now. Everything become more complicated when Keichi’s housemates kick him out from the house, they consider that Keichi breaks the rules for bringing a girl in. subsequently, Keichi and Belldandy who are homeless finds a place in a temple, the priest lends them the temple while he makes a pilgrimage to India. Later the story is flaming up with the occurrence of Keichi’s college friends, Belldandy’s sisters (Urd and Skuld) who stay with them in the temple later, and also the demon, Marller, who constantly brings troubles to Keichi and Belldandy.

The plot is nice I think, there are hardly any dark or bloody scenes. Relations between characters are sown in peaceful and funny situation; even if there are rivalries exist. I think that the disputes between them, even if it is between Belldandy and Marller, are more presented in comedic senses, not in hatred atmosphere. Kikuko Inoue is the voice actress for the character Belldandy, she is famous for her sweet peaceful motherly voice. This truly suits Belldandy who brings peaceful atmosphere to chaotic environment around her and Keichi.

In this era, its almost impossible to prevent any product from piracy. I haven't check it yet, but may be there are many torrents or direct downloads of this Season 1. So, just watch it and enjoy!

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First Semester of Great Teacher Onizuka

Anime of Great Teacher Onizuka is based on a manga authored by Tohru Fujisawa with same title. Personally, I like this anime very much. Tohru Fujisawa made the hero, Eikichi Onizuka, appears uniquely. He is portrayed as lazy, stupid, and former delinquent person with low level of IQ, but amazingly passed board exam to be an educator. Despite his bad background, Onizuka has caring and loving sides to his students far more than any other ‘normal’ skilled teachers, who are portrayed lacking educational souls.

Onizuka is a former gang member, but strangely obsessed to be a perfect teacher despite his bad education background. Somehow he succeeds to become a teacher when chairwoman of Holy Forest, Ryoko Sakurai, is convinced by his spirit and hires him, and from this start, his story as a teacher in Holy Forest begins.

Great Teacher Onizuka has 43 episodes, and this First Semester contains Episodes 1-23, each episode are titled as Lesson #, so they are Lesson #1, Lesson #2, and so on. In first semester, important characters are introduced one by one, starting from Onizuka himself, Principal Uchiyamada who hates him, his colleague teacher – Azusa – who has a crush on him, and his students like Noboru Yoshikawa & Uehara Anko, Kunio Murai, Tomoko Nomura, Miyabi, Urumi Kanzaki, etc. These episodes show how Onizuka builds his relationship with his students, who initially don’t trust him at all and even try to abuse him (something they did to their previous homeroom teacher).

Usually, there’s two languages option in the DVD, English and Japanese (with English subtitle). I like to watch it in Japanese; English dub is weird in my ears. This anime is not suitable for kids, for there are harsh words and scenes emphasizing partial nudity. Harsh words and violence are present almost in all episodes. And even if there are serious plots about Onizuka trying to solve problems connected to his students or himself, I still see funny things in them. Onizuka is always portrayed in funny ways when he panics over some problems. And last comment from me, first semester has 23 episodes, each episode around 20-25 minutes, so this anime can be a choice for “movie marathon” in weekend.
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Israel Invades Gaza - Ron Paul Responds

Here are statements of Ron Paul concerning Israel invasion to Gaza:

• The idea for “preventive war” is spreading
• We should be on neither side; that conflict has been going on for a long time
• Even though Israel invades Gaza, we - the US - will be blamed for this
• Palestinians are confined to a “concentration camp” and are no match for Israel
• The Middle East is a powder keg
• We’re involved in too many wars and are going bankrupt
• 2009 will see inflation and a rapid deterioration of the dollar
• We’re spending too much money, borrowing too much money, and printing too much money
• Escalation in Gaza and Afghanistan means big trouble at the world stage and at home
• The attack on our personal liberties continues

Perhaps he is the most unique, or even the wisest man in House Representatives, compared to his colleagues there. But as happen before, there are much more lawmakers supporting Israel than their own country in House Of Representatives and Senate. Even if US is going bankrupt, in their mind, Israel is going first, as always.

Why can’t this man become President of United States? Shouldn’t the wise become the ruler? Like a concept laid by Plato in Greek era. Well, Plato also suggested the hole in democracy. The ruler – in democracy – will not always chosen – by public – because essential things. Non-essentials factors tend to affect people more, like rhetorical skill, genealogy, etc. Shame, shame on us, the human being.
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